Gavekal Capital: US Econ Roundup - Initial Claims Improve To 6 1/2 Year Lows and Philly Fed Accelerates

Thursday, April 17, 2014

US Econ Roundup - Initial Claims Improve To 6 1/2 Year Lows and Philly Fed Accelerates

While initial jobless claims were just a bit higher this week than last (304K vs 302K), the widely watched 4-week moving average slid down to 312K which is its lowest level since October 2007. Continuing claims fell to 6-year low as well. Finally, the less looked non-seasonally adjusted initial claims series remains firmly negative on a year-over-year basis. This is important because increases in this series tend to signal higher future levels in the seasonally adjusted series.

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The Philly Fed Survey easily beat consensus expectations by posting a 16.6 for April (consensus was 10). The Philly Fed price indices are not pointing to a pick-up in CPI for April.

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