Gavekal Capital: Disappointing Data Out of Europe-- and a Big Change Ahead

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Disappointing Data Out of Europe-- and a Big Change Ahead

While we will have to wait another month or so to see the official results, today's data releases of both the ZEW Survey (red line) and European Industrial Production (dark blue line) do not bode well for Europe's Q3 GDP (light blue line) release:

image

On a somewhat brighter note, Europe is set to release restated annual national account data this Friday.  The new data incorporates ESA 2010 methodology that is meant to better capture the growing role of intangible assets and intellectual property (one of our favorite themes) and follows in the footsteps of the U.S. which began reporting comparable data a year ago.  Capitalizing research and development investments is expected to be the largest contributing factor that results in GDP for various members of the European Union that is higher by up to 5%.  More information can be found on Europe's statistical website, here.